As of June 9, 2025, the Austin real estate market continues to exhibit signs of stress across multiple metrics. Active residential listings have climbed to 17,541, setting another new multi-year high. Meanwhile, the New Listing to Pending Ratio has dropped to 0.44, marking its lowest point in the last 12 months and signaling continued weakness in buyer activity. Although the average sold price for June to date has rebounded to $617,724—up 5.2% month-over-month and 7.9% year-over-year—the increase appears driven more by composition than renewed demand. With months of inventory rising to 6.44 and the activity index at just 21.0%, the local market is tilting further toward buyer-favorable conditions.

Austin Real Estate Update – Market Pressures Intensify as Summer Begins

The Austin housing market continues to face mounting headwinds heading into mid-June. For the week ending June 9, 2025, the New Listing to Pending Ratio has dropped to 0.44, the lowest point in over a year. This metric—one of the clearest early indicators of market demand—shows that for every 100 new listings, just 44 are going under contract. The persistent weakness in buyer activity is expanding inventory and placing downward pressure on pricing across much of the six-county region.

Inventory Surges to Multi-Year Highs
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Active residential listings have reached 17,541, an increase of 16.5% year-over-year and a 13.4% jump from just one month ago. This is the highest inventory level recorded in more than a decade, and it places the current months of inventory (MOI) at 6.44, shifting the region into solidly neutral-to-buyer market territory. The surge is not just seasonal—it reflects a structural imbalance between supply and demand that is deepening as we approach the heart of the summer selling season.

Price Reductions Dominate Seller Strategy
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Price drops remain the dominant force in listing updates. For the past week, 94% of all price changes were reductions, with 2,064 price cuts compared to just 133 increases. This follows a May trend where 91% of price changes were reductions. Sellers across the region are racing to keep pace with buyer expectations as affordability challenges persist and inventory competition intensifies.

Sales Volume Drops While Prices Rise on Mix Shift
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Despite weak demand, the average sold price in June has risen to $617,724, a 5.2% increase month-over-month and a 7.9% gain year-over-year. However, this growth is more reflective of shifts in the sales mix than broad pricing power. The median sold price is $465,000, up just 4.3% YoY, and much of the strength is concentrated in newer or higher-priced segments. Sales volume, on the other hand, continues to decline. Only 2,295 homes sold so far this June, a 23.4% decrease month-over-month and 19.4% below last June's totals, making it one of the weakest early-June readings in recent history.

Resale Market Faces Steeper Headwinds
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The divide between resale and new construction continues to grow. The resale Activity Index has fallen to just 21.0%, while new construction maintains a healthier 34.5%. Builders are continuing to hold firm on MLS pricing but are leveraging off-MLS incentives to attract buyers. In contrast, resale sellers are struggling to compete, especially in zip codes saturated with inventory. For instance, MOI in resale-heavy areas such as 78744 and 78640 now exceeds 10 months, while nearby new construction options are moving faster due to incentives and builder financing offers.

Regional Outlook & Local Hotspots
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Several submarkets are flashing red on inventory and absorption. Leander, Pflugerville, and Lockhart are seeing rapid build-ups in active listings without corresponding increases in pending sales. The zip code 78748, which has long been a bellwether for first-time buyer activity, now shows a New Listing to Pending Ratio of just 0.38, suggesting sustained stagnation. Buyers are becoming increasingly selective, and value-priced homes in move-in condition are the clear winners in today’s environment.

Economic Conditions and Mortgage Rates
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Mortgage rates remain stable, holding at 6.875%, but continued attention is focused on upcoming economic data releases. While inflation and manufacturing numbers have improved, labor market results expected this Friday could sway Treasury yields and, by extension, mortgage costs. The potential for rate volatility looms large, particularly for buyers trying to lock in financing amid rising inventory and falling prices.​