Market Overview: Inventory Growth Outpaces Demand
The Austin housing market continues to recalibrate as active listings grow faster than buyer absorption. As of early November, active inventory sits at roughly 16,041 listings, and the six-county region (Travis, Williamson, Bastrop, Hays, Caldwell, and Burnet) ended October with 14,181 active properties—an 11.2% year-over-year increase and the highest October total on record.
New listings are still accelerating: the last full week of October logged 805 new listings, an unusually strong performance for Halloween weekend and a clear signal that sellers have not pulled back despite cooler demand.
The new-listing-to-pending ratio stands at 0.59, identical to last week and far below the 0.82 seen in late September. This slowdown underscores that while sellers remain active, buyers are hesitating. Historically, the fall season brings fewer listings; instead, Austin saw a 7.8% month-over-month increase in October, a pattern not seen since before 2008.
Pending Sales, Sold Activity, and Year-Over-Year Shifts
Pending contracts totaled 3,212 in October—slightly under last year—while cumulative pending activity is down 1.4% year-to-date, making 2025 the weakest cumulative pending year since records began in 2010. Sold volume was even more sobering: 2,366 closings, the lowest October total in over a decade, down 16.9% year-over-year and 51.5% below the 2021 peak.
When indexed by population, October recorded just 83 sales per 100,000 residents, an 18.9% annual decline—and near the lowest per-capita level since 2010. This metric adjusts for Austin’s population boom, giving a truer sense of demand shortfall.
Forecast: 20,000 Active Listings by Spring 2026
The imbalance between listings and demand is widening. Year-to-date, Austin added 2,596 more listings than last year, while sold transactions fell by 631. The delta between new and pending listings hit a 17-year high of 1,382, signaling rising oversupply.
Withdrawn and expired listings combined total 17,845 over the past 12 months, nearly 3,000 more than the prior year. Even assuming 25% of those re-enter the market, Austin is on track to exceed 20,000 active listings by March or April 2026, before peaking near 20,500–21,000 by mid-year.
Prices and Percentiles: The Bifurcated Market
Despite slowing sales, prices remain elevated. October’s average sold price hit $596,834, the highest October on record—even surpassing 2022’s peak. However, this average is being skewed upward by strength in the upper quartile. Median prices dipped to $439,000, roughly 20% below the 2022 peak, showing that most of the resilience is concentrated in high-end segments.
Price analysis by percentile confirms a bifurcated market. Homes in the lower 25th percentile declined modestly, while properties in the 75th to 90th percentile gained up to 9.5% year-over-year. Luxury markets such as Dripping Springs and Bastrop are outperforming, while affordability-driven zip codes show pullbacks.
Market Flow Score and Buyer Activity
Austin’s Market Flow Score for October came in at 3.94, compared with a long-term average of 6.58, reflecting a market operating at about half its historical strength. Activity Index remains flat around 20%, with 26 of 30 tracked cities still in contraction or crisis zones. With absorption at 15.1%—the lowest since 2012—and 59% of active listings showing price drops, competition among sellers is intensifying. Pending absorption improvements are unlikely until late Q1 2026.
Leasing Market Update
Leasing conditions mirror the slowdown. Active lease listings climbed to 7,434, the highest November on record. Average lease prices dropped $81 month-over-month to $2,315, while median lease prices declined $100 to $2,500. That marks a 9.8% average decline and 10.8% median decline from last year. The lease absorption ratio remains soft as supply continues to rise. This data reinforces a cooling trend in both the resale and rental sectors, with rising vacancies pressuring prices.
Outlook and Final Thoughts
Looking ahead, the fourth quarter should deliver slightly lower inventory due to seasonality, but demand remains too weak to offset the supply surge. Expect inventory to climb back above 20,000 listings by early spring and prices to continue easing 8–12% before stabilizing.
The bright spot remains opportunity: informed buyers have more selection and stronger negotiation leverage, while sellers who price precisely at the market’s leading edge continue to attract activity. As always, data—not emotion—guides the path forward.
