New Listing and Pending Activity Setting the Tone
We opened the week with 697 new listings, a meaningful pullback compared to last week and a sign that sellers are beginning to slow their pace heading into the holiday period. Even with that slowdown, pricing pressure remains heavy. There were 1,463 price drops, putting 92 percent of all price changes in the “drop” category. This continues the long-running trend of sellers adjusting their expectations to match where buyers are willing to write offers.
Back-on-market activity held at 164, showing that about a quarter of returning inventory is re-entering due to buyer fallout or contract issues. Pending transactions came in at 208, setting the early-week new-listing-to-pending ratio at 0.66. That’s far below the 0.94 ratio we saw during the same week last year, but it is a notable improvement over the past two weeks. The market is absorbing more inventory than it was earlier in November, and that shift matters.
Month-to-Date Trends Show the Real Story
Looking at the broader month-to-date picture, new listings stand at 1,530, while pending transactions sit at 554, producing a month-long ratio of 0.75. That number remains well under equilibrium and far below the 0.94 ratio from November 2024.
What matters most here is the gap between the two: New listings down 43.3 percent year-over-year. Pendings down 65 percent year-over-year. That imbalance tells the real story. Buyers are showing selective interest, and sellers are testing the market with less enthusiasm than last month. Even so, the mix of inventory is influencing buyer behavior in a positive way.
Signs of Momentum in Buyer Demand
One of the most encouraging data points this week came from the Austin Daily Briefing: pendings are starting to rise at the exact time last year when they began falling. That movement has narrowed the year-over-year pending gap to just 2.2 percent, down from more than 4 percent earlier this month.
If that trend continues for another seven days, pendings could flip to positive year-over-year growth for the first time since September. That would mark a major momentum shift and would align with what several agents are already experiencing: more showings and more competitive situations in the right ZIP codes and price ranges.
Priced Right, Everything Is Selling
Price strength continues to surprise to the upside. The average sold price is now up 9.5 percent year-over-year, and the median is up 4.3 percent. Even more telling: the bottom 25th percentile of homes posted a rare 0.3 percent year-over-year gain, signaling that buyers are finding value at the lower end of the market and are finally acting on it.
Upper-price segments remain strong, with several ZIP codes in expansion territory showing Activity Index readings above 30 percent. Markets like Dripping Springs and parts of Lago Vista continue to show impressive buyer demand, especially in higher price brackets.
But the market isn’t rising uniformly. Areas like Kyle and Smithville are showing broad weakness across every price percentile, and properties there face tougher conditions as we move into the winter months.
Navigating Listings Through the Holiday Season
One of the big questions today was about holiday timing. The advice remains simple: perfection over timing. If the home is flawless—pricing, condition, presentation—get it on the market. Tuesday or Friday of Thanksgiving week is perfectly fine. Wednesday and Thursday are not ideal.
If a listing is struggling and needs a reset, withdraw it now, wait roughly 30 days, reshuffle the photos and description, and relaunch with fresh energy. There is no need to wait for CDOM to reset.
Rates Adding Tailwind Across the Board
Rates continue to move in a favorable direction. Conventional, FHA, VA, and USDA products hovered in the 6.125 to 6.5 percent range today, with investor products around 7.125 percent. These lower rates are one of the drivers behind the improving pending trend, and if this continues, the first quarter of 2026 could start with better buyer energy than expected.
